2024 Economic Outlook

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As we’re in the beginning of a new year, let’s look at the key economic factors that are likely to come into play, and what they may mean for investors.


Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came it at 3.2% in November 2023, much higher than the 2% level where the Fed would like it to be (Forbes). Inflation continues to fall, yet is still high by historical standards. Seeing that the banks are flooded with reserves, reducing inflation meaningfully may prove to be a delicate task. The Fed has its work cut out for it.


Macroeconomic tailwinds are still working in our favor. Earnings growth is expected to be healthy this year. Over the course of history, election years have typically been good for the market, particularly when there is an incumbent on the ballot. Positive growth is seen as likely for all market sectors, with healthcare and IT expected to be the leaders (Forbes).


Despite the optimism, there are concerns with the quality of growth as half of last year’s job additions happened within the government and healthcare sectors. In sharp contrast, before COVID these two areas combined for 20% of new jobs (First Trust). With the spending at $6.1 trillion last year, it is worrisome to contemplate about what will happen when all of this catches up to us (Ibid). Slowed down growth is a likely outcome.

Having said all of this, the best defense from anything that can happen this year to the economy or stock market is being prepared. If you’d like to discuss your portfolio or financial plan, please set up a time to talk with us.



Blackstone. (2024, January 4). Market Views: Spotting Trends Early: Easing Inflation. https://pws.blackstone.com/education-insights/article/spotting-trends-early-easing-inflation/

Duggan, Wayne. (2024, January 5th). Forbes Advisor. Stock Market Forecast for 2024. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stock-market-forecast-2024/

First Trust Portfolios. (2024, January 8th). First Trust Monday Morning Outlook: Low Quality Growth. https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2024/1/8/low-quality-growth

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