Here’s a quick summary of what we’ve been seeing in the market this year and what it may mean for you.
This year we witnessed:
- A series of Fed rate cuts
- A new President elected
- Unemployment at a tepid 4.1%, slightly higher than year ago levels (BLS, 2024)
- Inflation ticking up 3.3% over the last 12 months (BLS, 2024)
While the future can never be predicted, it looks like a Trump presidency will be positive for the economy and markets. As we’ve discussed in past newsletters, we would expect an easing of taxes, looser regulation, and growth in energy, infrastructure, and construction.
Market Recap
Here is a quick recap of what the markets have done this year.
The return on the S&P 500 has been 26.82% year to date, as of December 10th, 2024.
Bonds have returned 3.51%, on a total return basis, over the same timeframe.
Municipal bonds have done about the same, returning about 2.89% as of December 10th, 2024.
While the picture seems rosy, caveats should be kept in mind. The market can never be predicted and geopolitical instability can be a source of intermittent volatility. Even with a Trump presidency likely to be supportive of economic growth, there are no guarantees. As always, the best defense is a properly calibrated risk tolerance, a well-maintained portfolio, and a solid financial plan. If you wish to discuss your financial situation, please reach out to us to set up a time.
-Judd
Sources
CNBC. S&P 500 Index, year to date. Retrieved on December 3rd, 2024 from https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX
S&P Dow Jones Indices. S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. S&P Dow Jones Indices. Retrieved on December 3rd, 2024, from https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/fixed-income/sp-national-amt-free-municipal-bond-index/#overview
US Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2024, December 6th). The Unemployment Situation – November 2024. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
US Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2024, 13) November. Consumer Price Index Summary. Consumer Price Index – October 2024. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Yahoo!Finance. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG). Retrieved on December 10th, 2024 from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AGG/
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.