Recent economic trends display no cause for concern. But we aren’t waving the victory flag just yet. Weakness in jobs data may indicate murmurs of trouble on the horizon.
Glassner Carlton September Market Outlook
- The recent jobs report was stable but showed some signs of weakness.
- Inflation is range bound at 0.2% this July and interest rates are slightly downward after a period of stability.
- Impact of the Big Beautiful Bill remains to be seen and may thwart the Fed’s likely rate cut.
The July jobs report showed cause for some concern. The unemployment rate is currently 4.2%, up slightly from the month prior, and has fluctuated very little since May 2024 (BLS, 2025). There were 73,000 jobs added during the month, falling short of expectations. This may be an indicator of a slowing economy.
According to the most recent BLS report, inflation seems to be staying within normal range. The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, increased 0.2% this July, slightly south of the increase seen the month prior. Prices are up 2.7% from year ago levels.
Although there were no drastic trends in either reading, these results do pave the way for a possible Fed rate cut later this year. Although there was no such a cut in July, the longer term trend shows interest rates as slightly downward after a period of stability. While we would not expect to see dramatic cuts to rates, it’s likely that we’ll be seeing more downward pressure if economic data continues in line with current trends.
The wild card is the Big Beautiful Bill. While its impact has not yet been seen in a meaningful way, it is likely the effect on the American consumer will be beneficial. Whether this overshadows the allure of Fed rate cuts is at the hands of the powers that be.
What does this mean for you?
Rate cuts tend to bode well for fixed income holdings, and also tend to stimulate discretionary spending due to easing credit conditions. This in turn can prop up company earnings and the equity market.
Whether or not economic trends translate into meaningful stock market activity remains to be seen. The market can never be predicted. The best possible course of action is to stay on top of your own personal financial situation. If you haven’t revised your financial plan recently, let’s set up a time to meet and go over it. Be sure to apprise us of any changes to your risk tolerance or life position so that we may revise your portfolio asset allocation accordingly.
As always, please reach out with any questions.
-Judd
Sources
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (12 August, 2025). Consumer Price Index Summary. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (1 August, 2025). Employment Situation Summary. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Schafer, Josh. (1 August, 2025). Yahoo!Finance. US labor market adds 73,000 jobs in July while May, June reports see ‘larger than normal’ downward revisions. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-labor-market-adds-73000-jobs-in-july-while-may-june-reports-see-larger-than-normal-downward-revisions-195103455.html